Introduction
When I first learnt about the Dalai Lama succession issue, I was struck by how a deeply spiritual tradition could become entangled in such complex geopolitics. What was once a sacred religious practice has transformed into something that resembles a high-stakes international chess match—a confrontation between tradition and tyranny, between religious freedom and ideological control.
A Personal Connection: The Dalai Lama and the Assam Rifles
Before I delve deeper into this geopolitical spiritual struggle, allow me to share a personal connection that has profoundly shaped my understanding of this issue. As the former Director General of India’s Assam Rifles—our nation’s oldest paramilitary force—I had the extraordinary honour of inviting His Holiness the Dalai Lama to our headquarters.
This invitation wasn’t merely a ceremonial gesture; it represented the continuation of a historic relationship between the Dalai Lama and the Assam Rifles that began during one of the most critical moments in Tibetan history. In 1959, when the young Dalai Lama was fleeing Chinese persecution in Tibet, it was the brave troops of the Assam Rifles who first welcomed him at the Indian border and escorted him to safety within our territory—a pivotal moment that would shape both Tibetan history and Indo-Tibetan relations for decades to come.
The Dalai Lama has never forgotten this. During his visit, he blessed our force, expressing his profound gratitude for that crucial protection provided during his darkest hour. Seeing his genuine emotion as he recalled those events—how Assam Rifles’ personnel risked their lives to ensure his safe passage—was deeply moving. It transformed my understanding of this issue from an abstract geopolitical concern to something deeply personal and human.
This historic connection between the Assam Rifles and the Dalai Lama represents something profound: India’s longstanding commitment to protecting not just a religious leader but the spiritual heritage he embodies. Now, as we face the prospect of China attempting to control his succession, this history takes on even greater significance.
A Spiritual Legacy Under Siege
Imagine being recognised as a reincarnated spiritual leader at just two years old. That’s what happened to Tenzin Gyatso, the 14th Dalai Lama, who has spent nearly nine decades embodying Tibetan Buddhism’s compassionate wisdom. Now at 89, he carries both his tradition and the hopes of millions of Tibetans on his shoulders.
The Dalai Lama isn’t merely a religious figure—he represents something far more profound. Since the 15th century, each Dalai Lama has embodied both the spiritual essence of Tibetan Buddhism and, historically, the temporal leadership of Tibet itself. The current Dalai Lama, born in 1935 and identified as the reincarnation when he was just a toddler, has dedicated his life to advocating for peace, nonviolence, and Tibetan autonomy.
I’ve always found it remarkable how the Dalai Lama, forced to flee his homeland in 1959 after Chinese forces crushed the Tibetan uprising, has maintained his commitment to peace. From his home in Dharamshala, India, he established the Tibetan government-in-exile and has become a global symbol of resilience and compassion.
But Beijing has never seen him through this lens. To the Chinese Communist Party, he represents something entirely different—an obstacle to their complete control and integration of Tibet. And as he ages, the question of his succession has evolved from a religious matter into an urgent political crisis.
Beijing's Calculated Power Play: Manufacturing a "Chinese Dalai Lama"
Here’s where things take a truly Orwellian turn. The Chinese Communist Party—officially atheist and ideologically opposed to religion—is methodically preparing to control a deeply sacred spiritual process.
In 2007, the CCP unveiled what might be one of history’s most brazen religious power grabs: Order No. 5. This remarkable document requires all Tibetan Buddhist reincarnations to receive government approval. Yes, you read that correctly—an atheist government has created laws dictating how reincarnation should work. This isn’t merely bureaucratic overreach; it’s a calculated attempt to capture the very soul of a tradition.
Let’s be crystal clear about Beijing’s objective: they aim to create a “Chinese Dalai Lama” within their borders—a figure they can control absolutely, parade before the world as legitimate, and use to advance their political agenda. This counterfeit spiritual leader would serve multiple strategic purposes: undermining the authority of the Tibetan exile leadership, eroding global support for the Tibetan cause, and legitimizing Chinese dominance over Tibet.
The CCP is investing heavily in this long-term strategy. They’re systematically controlling monastic institutions throughout Tibet, placing monasteries under intense surveillance, subjecting religious leaders to political “re-education,” and flooding Tibetan regions with propaganda about reincarnation that contradicts centuries of Buddhist tradition. All of this preparation serves a single goal: ensuring that when the current Dalai Lama passes, Beijing can immediately install their pre-selected successor.
What makes this plan particularly disturbing is that we’ve already seen their blueprint in action. In 1995, after the Dalai Lama identified six-year-old Gedhun Choekyi Nyima as the 11th Panchen Lama (the second most important figure in Tibetan Buddhism), Chinese authorities abducted the child mere days later. This young boy, often called “the world’s youngest political prisoner,” has not been seen by the outside world since.
In his place, Beijing appointed their own Panchen Lama—Gyaltsen Norbu—a selection rejected by most Tibetans but promoted heavily by Chinese state media. Despite years of official backing, Beijing’s Panchen Lama has struggled to gain any genuine spiritual authority among the Tibetan people, who see him as a political appointee rather than a true spiritual leader.
This failed attempt at spiritual legitimacy hasn’t deterred Beijing. Instead, they’re doubling down on their strategy, creating an elaborate infrastructure to identify, groom, and install their own 15th Dalai Lama when the time comes. Chinese officials have repeatedly declared that the next Dalai Lama must be born within China’s borders, must be approved by the Chinese government, and must be loyal to the Communist Party—three requirements that fundamentally contradict Tibetan Buddhist traditions.
The Spiritual Resistance: The Dalai Lama's Countermove
What fascinates me about this situation is how the current Dalai Lama has responded. Rather than reacting with anger or despair, he’s methodically created spiritual contingency plans to outmanoeuvre Beijing’s machinations.
Anticipating the CCP’s intentions, he has taken several preemptive steps to protect his spiritual lineage. In numerous public statements, he has made it abundantly clear that the decision regarding his reincarnation rests solely with him and the Tibetan people—not with any political regime and certainly not with the Chinese government.
He’s stated he might choose not to reincarnate at all—a profound spiritual and political statement that would disrupt Beijing’s plans entirely. Alternatively, he might reincarnate outside Chinese control, perhaps in India where religious freedom is protected. He’s promised written instructions before his passing and has already declared that any Chinese-appointed successor should be considered illegitimate.
In a comprehensive 2011 statement, he outlined a clear succession plan: when he approaches 90 years of age (which is now), he will consult with senior Tibetan Buddhist leaders and the wider Tibetan community to determine whether the institution of the Dalai Lama should continue at all. If the decision is to continue, he will leave explicit written instructions for identifying his authentic reincarnation. Most critically, he emphasised that any successor appointed by the Chinese government “should not be recognised or accepted” by the Tibetan people or the international community.
This is spiritual resistance at its most profound—a battle fought not with weapons but with faith, foresight, and determination.
A Geopolitical Fault Line with Global Implications
The battle over the Dalai Lama’s succession transcends religion—it has profound geopolitical implications that will reshape the Himalayan region and global conversations about religious freedom.
For India, where I’ve seen the Tibetan exile community thrive despite immense challenges, this represents a moral and strategic crossroads. After hosting Tibetan refugees for over 60 years, India now faces the prospect of becoming home to the next legitimate Dalai Lama—a development that would inevitably intensify already strained relations with China.
India’s approach has historically been cautious—balancing humanitarian support for Tibetans with diplomatic sensitivity toward China. But the landscape is shifting. Following the 2020 Galwan Valley clashes and increasing border tensions, New Delhi may take a firmer position on Tibetan issues. Should the legitimate reincarnation emerge in India, it would elevate India’s moral standing and allow it to challenge Chinese overreach through spiritual legitimacy rather than military confrontation.
The United States and other democracies are also awakening to the significance of this issue. The Tibetan Policy and Support Act, passed by the U.S. Congress in 2020, explicitly rejects Chinese interference in the reincarnation process and establishes sanctions against any officials involved in it. This international attention is crucial—global pressure may be the most effective tool for preventing Beijing from successfully installing a puppet Dalai Lama.
The Human Cost of Beijing's Spiritual Engineering
Beyond geopolitics lie the human and spiritual stakes. What Beijing is attempting is not just political manipulation—it is spiritual fraud on an unprecedented scale. By trying to engineer the reincarnation of one of the world’s most revered religious leaders, the CCP is violating centuries of tradition and deeply offending the religious sensibilities of millions of Tibetan Buddhists and their supporters worldwide.
The real danger is that despite international objections, Beijing may proceed with its plan, investing enormous resources in a ceremonial installation of their chosen candidate in Lhasa. They’ll likely spare no expense in creating an elaborate spectacle designed to convince the world of their appointee’s legitimacy. State media will broadcast carefully choreographed rituals, and diplomatic pressure will be applied to secure international recognition.
But no matter how grand the ceremonies or how tightly controlled the narrative, a fundamental truth will remain: a politically appointed Dalai Lama will lack spiritual authenticity. Tibetans will see this figure not as their spiritual leader but as a symbol of occupation—a living reminder of Beijing’s determination to control not just their land but their faith.
For Tibetans living under Chinese rule, this creates an impossible situation. They’ll be forced to publicly accept a spiritual leader they privately reject, adding religious coercion to the political restrictions they already endure. Meanwhile, Tibetans in exile and their Buddhist followers worldwide will almost certainly recognise a different successor—creating a painful schism in a tradition that has remained unified for centuries.
A Soldier's Reflection on Faith, Service, and Freedom
Having served as a military officer for decades, I’ve witnessed firsthand how security challenges often have deeper cultural and spiritual dimensions. The case of the Dalai Lama’s succession represents perhaps the most profound intersection of security and spirituality in our region.
When I reflect on meeting His Holiness and learning about how the Assam Rifles—the force I once led—played such a pivotal role in his journey to freedom, I’m reminded that some traditions transcend politics and national interests. They speak to our common humanity and to values that all free societies should protect.
As a military leader, I was trained to assess threats and protect national security. The Chinese attempt to control Tibetan spiritual succession represents a different kind of threat—not just to India’s borders, but to the principle of religious freedom itself. It’s a threat that requires not just military vigilance but moral clarity.
What’s ultimately at stake here goes beyond who wears the robes or sits on the throne—it’s about the survival of a culture, the integrity of a faith, and the right of a people to determine their spiritual destiny. Beijing’s bid to usurp this process represents more than political opportunism—it’s an act of spiritual aggression that threatens a tradition that has survived for centuries.
I find hope in the current Dalai Lama’s foresight. By anticipating this moment and creating clear guidelines for what comes next, he’s provided a roadmap for preserving authentic spiritual leadership even in the face of unprecedented pressure. His emphasis on transparency, spiritual continuity, and the agency of the Tibetan people ensures that the torch of truth will not be extinguished by authoritarian control.
The world must remain vigilant and principled on this issue. For if the Chinese Communist Party can successfully manufacture a Dalai Lama, it sets a dangerous precedent—that even the most sacred traditions can be co-opted by political power. This precedent would threaten religious communities far beyond Tibet’s borders.
As we witness this unfolding drama between faith and power, we’re really watching something more fundamental: the enduring strength of spiritual conviction against political control. And that’s a story that resonates with all who value the freedom to believe according to their conscience rather than government decree.
This is no longer just a Tibetan issue—it is a global call to defend the freedom of faith itself.
Lieutenant General Shokin Chauhan (Retd.), PVSM, AVSM, YSM, SM, VSM, PhD, is a distinguished Indian Army officer and a member of the Executive Council of the Global Counter Terrorism Council (GCTC) . He has held pivotal roles such as Director General of Assam Rifles and Chairman of the Ceasefire Monitoring Group, contributing significantly to India’s counter-insurgency and strategic initiatives. An alumnus of premier defense institutions, he holds a PhD focusing on India-Nepal strategic relations. Currently, he continues to influence defense and security policies through his involvement with GCTC and other strategic forums.
